Why Underdogs are the Smart Bet in Soccer Betting
Underdog or favorite? It's a choice we make everyday throughout the Soccer season. While there are certainly times when favorites warrant our attention, my experience tells me that betting underdogs is the best way to make money in soccer betting. Here are 5 reasons why you should pay special attention to the dogs every season.
1. Not every win is created equal
Favorites Odds tends to be on the low side ranging from 1.70-1.85. It doesn't serve much value especially if you are betting big considering you risk $1000 on a singles even if you did win, you only managed a $700 to $825 profit. With a 3 bets/per day system which I'm adopting a typical scenario of 1 win 1 draw and 1 loss situation would result in a viguorish loss of $150-$300. However if you are betting on underdogs the odds tends to range from $1.975-$2.15 with the scenario of 1 win 1 draw and 1 loss situation would result in minimal viguorish loss or more often a profit due to the value odds.
2. Underdogs don't get any respect!
They don't get it from the public, sometimes leading to higher than deserved spreads. More importantly, they don't get it from their opposition. Good teams can sometimes take bad teams lightly (especially if players and coaches minds are on other things, like next week's tougher opponent). Research and an understanding of historical trends can reveal great situations in which underdogs are poised for an upset.
3. The Public Can't Help Itself
The average bettor loves the popular teams (favorites), often times pushing lines unreasonably high. In fact, almost every week, with the right research, you can spot teams that should be favorites but are getting points against a popular team that has been installed as a favorite due to the public "bandwagon effect"?
4. Got Courage?
Most bettors don't have the courage to go with certain underdogs. They see a (perceived) good team versus a (perceived) bad team and assume it won't be a contest. They have formed an opinion about how horrible some teams are based on a recent blowout or past personal gambling loss. Again, with the right combination of statistical and situational research, some undervalued dogs can be spotted each week. There are also certain situations in which bad teams have historically and reliably outperformed their average. Match that with a historically-proven situation in which favorites under-perform and you have yourself a reliable upset scenario.
5.What It All Means
Obviously just playing all underdogs is not the answer (that would yield you approximately 50% wins and a negative account balance). However, with the right research, you can spot some very high-value underdog winners each week.
Best regards
Winder Liao
Winder sports
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